Only a handful of players in the 2012 NFL Draft seem likely to merit immediate fantasy football consideration. In the draft, I prefer to treat rookies like I treat “sleepers.” They are usually only a value if they are picked relatively late in the draft. Their value should be based on their “floor,” not their “ceiling.” They are generally too risky to pick early in the draft, where you should be picking players in their primes with proven track records. If you get too cute with your “inspired” selections, you’ll end up looking like Pete Carroll. And not the USC Pete Carroll. The Seattle Pete Carroll that just managed to draft nearly everyone about two rounds too early.
With that in mind, I believe the following players at least merit consideration if they fall to you in the appropriate round.
- Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona – Floyd is in the right place at the right time. He will benefit greatly from Larry Fitzgerald‘s presence on the other side of the field. His raw ability will be enough to outmatch many of the second tier defenders that teams will usually throw his direction. If you don’t believe me, just ask Anquan Boldin, whose numbers dropped off considerably after parting ways with Fitzgerald, even though he is now the primary option in Baltimore’s offense. For fantasy purposes, I would rank him near the top of the list for #2 WR’s, likely ahead of some #1 WR’s on poor passing teams.
- Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland – I am usually very cautious about drafting rookie RB’s. (Mark Ingram certainly did not set the world on fire last year.) However, Richardson seems likely to be the primary RB in Cleveland’s offense from day one. Even relatively unpredictable primary backs have fantasy value. At the moment, I would rank Richardson near the bottom of the list of primary, non-platoon RB’s. He likely merits a bit of a bump in keeper leagues, particularly if your holdover keepers are starting to age.
- Robert Griffin, III, QB, Washington — Rookie QB’s are risky, but Griffin has the best chance to shine this year. He will have more talent around him than Andrew Luck. He also will pick up some valuable fantasy points on the ground, scrambling his way out of broken plays. For fantasy purposes, I would rank RG3 on the low side of the middle of the pack for all starting NFL QB’s.
- Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay — Martin should have every opportunity to see significant playing time in Tampa Bay. Unfortunately, at least to start the year, it may be as a platoon back with LeGarrette Blount. I would put Martin near the bottom of the list of platoon backs that merit consideration.
For now, I would leave the likes of Justin Blackmon (the team mascot may be the best QB on that roster) and Andrew Luck (basically a rookie QB on an expansion team) in the free agent pool under almost any circumstances.
The great and mighty Tebow. Possibly the most polarizing player in NFL history for reasons that escape me. For the most part, he seems like a nice guy trying to earn a living. However, none of that matters in fantasy football — only statistics matter. So, does Tebow merit draft consideration in fantasy football this…
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Fantasy football is all about using the most boring, consistent strategy possible. No matter how smart you think you are… you probably are not smarter than basic statistics. If you win one week 120-70, then lose the next week 60-70… you are 1-1. If you put up the same 180 points as two 90 point weeks in…
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Peyton Manning has certainly dominated the offseason news, but what will he do in the fantasy world this season? Is he still worth a high draft pick? For several reasons, I do not believe he is: Age: Manning is getting older. Only a handful of QB’s have ever won a Super Bowl at his age…
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From a real football perspective, Andrew Luck is the safe choice as the number one pick in the NFL Draft. Non-traditional quarterbacks do not win Super Bowls. Period, exclamation mark, end of story. Tactical mastermind, drop-back passers win Super Bowls. Based on the history of the league, a QB like Luck is more likely to…
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And Mike Shanahan’s flavor of the week is… chocolate chip cookie dough… err… I mean Ryan Torain. That’s right, last year’s late season fantasy breakout has mysteriously returned to the top of Mike Shanahan’s running back heap. In the pre-season Tim Hightower emerged at the top of the depth chart. Though he has been relatively mediocre,…
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Victor Cruz came out of nowhere to have a hot game this week. However, its likely that it was just a hot game and not a sign of a trend. Cruz had 2 TD’s for 110 Yds. However, he only had 3 Rec.’s during the entire game, while playing as the Giants second WR. 74 of…
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Torrey Smith erupted in the first quarter of Sunday’s game for the Ravens. Putting up a ridiculous 3 TD’s and 133 Yds on the first three receptions of his career. Obviously… that type of production will not happen again anytime soon. However, Smith still merits a closer look. Smith was a star WR and kick returner at…
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Cam Newton has exploded onto the scene in a debut unmatched by just about any rookie in the history of the NFL. By now, he has been snatched up in most leagues, giving fortunate owners the choice between the QB they drafted and the hot rookie. At some point, someone is going to figure out how…
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Eric Decker is flying off of the waiver wire at a rapid clip… but I’m not quite certain why. Yes, he had a very good game on Sunday. He pulled in over 100 Yds. and added 2 TD’s. It was a very nice outing for him. However, he was Denver’s ONLY option at WR against the lowly Bengals. …
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