A quick/crude analysis of the end of season performance of some of the top fantasy QB’s is provided below. We derived this by looking at weeks 12-15 over the past three seasons with a few tweaks (Brady did not play in 2008, so his 2007 was included; Schaub did not play in week 12 of 2008, so week 16 was used; Ryan’s 2009 was interrupted, so weeks 11, 14,15, and 16 were used). Fantasy scoring per game was approximated based on a standard Yahoo! format – 25 yds/pt, 4pts/passing TD. Rushing was ignored for simplicity. (Vick was not included based on too little recent data.)
| YDPG | TDPG | QBRT | FAN PPG | |
| Matt Schaub | 322.58 | 1.58 | 95.23 | 19.24 |
| Tom Brady | 244.58 | 2.33 | 99.65 | 19.12 |
| Peyton Manning | 263.83 | 2.08 | 99.94 | 18.89 |
| Philip Rivers | 270.67 | 2.00 | 108.77 | 18.83 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 273.83 | 1.92 | 98.43 | 18.62 |
| Eli Manning | 244.50 | 1.58 | 85.87 | 16.11 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 274.50 | 1.25 | 89.43 | 15.98 |
| Matt Ryan | 188.00 | 1.42 | 83.87 | 13.19 |
The results tend to support the mantra of not reaching too high to grab a QB, at least from the point of view of the playoffs and final games of the regular season. You could take Peyton Manning in Round 1 or 2 and end up worse off than taking Schaub down around Round 4 or 5. Even Eli Manning, generally ignored in fantasy circles, was close enough to the top QB’s to justify waiting to take him way back in Round 9 or 10, giving you the chance to fully stock up your other positions.
Stats were taken from www.pro-football-reference.com
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