A quick/crude analysis of the end of season performance of some of the top fantasy QB’s is provided below. We derived this by looking at weeks 12-15 over the past three seasons with a few tweaks (Brady did not play in 2008, so his 2007 was included; Schaub did not play in week 12 of 2008, so week 16 was used; Ryan’s 2009 was interrupted, so weeks 11, 14,15, and 16 were used). Fantasy scoring per game was approximated based on a standard Yahoo! format – 25 yds/pt, 4pts/passing TD. Rushing was ignored for simplicity. (Vick was not included based on too little recent data.)
The results tend to support the mantra of not reaching too high to grab a QB, at least from the point of view of the playoffs and final games of the regular season. You could take Peyton Manning in Round 1 or 2 and end up worse off than taking Schaub down around Round 4 or 5. Even Eli Manning, generally ignored in fantasy circles, was close enough to the top QB’s to justify waiting to take him way back in Round 9 or 10, giving you the chance to fully stock up your other positions.
Stats were taken from www.pro-football-reference.com